18 hours ago,
15 tweets,
4 min read
Read on Twitter
Regarding
Syria and Turkey, there is some disinformation out there (including
from the POTUS himself), so here is some background on what is
admittedly a complex matter with no easy or magic formulas:
First:
It was Trump (not Obama) that made the decision to arm the Kurdish
component (YPG) of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to take Raqqa,
then ISIS’s capital city. He made this decision after his national
security team developed options for his review.
The SDF
suffered thousands of casualties in the Raqqa battle. Not a single
American life was lost. Trump later expanded the operation down the ERV.
He touts these operations in political rallies but without apparent
thought as to who did the fighting and dying.
The
weapons provided were meager and just enough for the battle against
ISIS. (The SDF cleared IEDs by purchasing flocks of sheep.) They were
not “paid massive amounts of money and equipment” (as Trump said today).
Nearly all stabilization funding came from the @coalition.[the coalition against Daesh (!?) [dahy-EESH] (ISIS)]
Second:
the United States did not partner with SDF over realistic alternatives.
Both Obama and Trump developed and considered options to work with the
Turkey-backed opposition, which is unfortunately riddled with
extremists, many tied to al Qaeda.
Nonetheless,
our best military planners spent months with counterparts in Turkey
across both administrations. The only available Turkey-approved option
in NE Syria would have required tens of thousands of American troops.
Two U.S. presidents rejected that option.
Third:
the United States is not “holding” ISIS detainees in Syria. They are all
being held by the SDF, and barely so given meager resources. State and
DOD Inspectors General have covered this in depth. Summary here: media.defense.gov/2019/Aug/06/20…
Turkish
entry by force into NE Syria risks fracturing the SDF, pulling its
fighters out of former ISIS strongholds, abandoning ISIS prison
facilities, and making it impossible for U.S. forces to stay on the
ground in small numbers with an acceptable level of risk.
Fourth:
It was the Trump administration that dramatically expanded the Syria
mission in 2018 beyond ISIS to include staying on the ground until Iran
left Syria and the civil war was resolved (meaning many years). Another
example of maximalist objectives for a minimalist POTUS.
Indeed,
the administration expanded the mission and policy aims in Syria while
Trump cut U.S. resources by more than 50 percent, leaving our people on
the ground scrambling with no backup from the president himself.
Misaligned ends/means = policy incoherence & risk.
Trump
then (twice) abruptly reversed course after 1) a foreign leader call and
2) without consulting his own military advisors. If anyone still
believes Trump cares about Syria, they’re mistaken. He doesn’t and his
erratic swings heighten risk to our personnel on the ground.
Finally: the U.S. leads a @coalition
that includes over 80 countries and nearly two dozen contributors to
the military and/or stabilization mission in Syria. Leading a coalition
requires consultation with coalition partners before major decisions are
taken. This is elementary.
The consequences
of such unreliability from the Oval [Office] will reverberate well beyond Syria.
The value of an American handshake is depreciating. Trump today said we
could “crush ISIS again" if it regenerated. With who? What allies would
sign up? Who would fight on his assurances?
Bottom
line: These are matters of war and peace, life and death. Our military
personnel, friends and allies, deserve deliberation and thought before
decisions are made (the essence of “command”). Erratic swings favor far
more patient adversaries in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.
I discussed much of this in @foreignaffairs a few month ago and stand by the analysis. You can read it here [at link embedded in caption below].
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More from @brett_mcgurk
a day ago
Donald Trump is not a Commander-in-Chief. He
makes impulsive decisions with no knowledge or deliberation. He sends
military personnel into harm’s way with no backing. He blusters and then
leaves our allies exposed when adversaries call his bluff or he
confronts a hard phone call.
The WH statement tonight on Syria after Trump
spoke with Erdogan demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of
anything happening on the ground. The “United States” is not holding any
ISIS detainees. They are all being held by the SDF, which Trump just
served up to Turkey. 
Turkey has neither the intent, desire, nor
capacity to manage 60k detainees in al Hol camp, which State and DoD IGs
warn is the nucleus for a resurgent ISIS. Believing otherwise is a
reckless gamble with our national security. Background here thesoufancenter.org/wp-content/upl…
22 days ago
Re: Iran/KSA – In a national security crisis
lacking an imminent threat, important to slow down, gather facts,
consult with allies and even adversaries, and develop options with
considered thought as to consequence of any action and preparation for
counter-response.
Any proposal for military action against Iran
must be tied to clear objectives, and readiness for escalation across
the region. We cannot presume it will be “one and done” as in Syria WMD
strikes. It would likely escalate, and thus congressional support
beforehand is important.
It’s also important in a crisis to review
assumptions of current policy and whether they are proving correct. If
assumptions are false, then policies meet unanticipated friction and
lead to unintended consequence.
3 months ago
Trump’s in a box on #Iran.
He clearly had no conception or understanding of where “maximum
pressure” absent a realistic objective was likely to lead. He acted
alone which makes it harder to bring allies with us. The tit-for-tat
cycle we now see was predictable.
This is consequence of a total lack of
process or rigorous inquiry before setting policy and contemplating
contingency and risk. It weakens our country and places an impossible
burden on our people holding military and diplomatic lines overseas.
We have been in urgent need of a broad
international coalition to protect navigation and deter Iran’s reckless
acts in the Gulf. But that takes American credibility, trust,
leadership, and allies—all of which the WH serves to undermine
month-after-month.